I ran across an excellent comment at The Oil Drum the other day, and asked Joe if I could quote him. If you want to read the whole thing you’ll want to click here. It’s a bit long so I’ll put it below the fold.

As I’ve said before, I’m trying my best not to dwell on the energy crisis; but as I watched gas prices drop all the way to $3.95 this week I’m hearing people say that everything will be OK. I don’t think it will. Think back twenty years, and think about how much has changed. I keep trying to imagine ten or twenty years from now, what will our world be like?

On August 14, 1969 my uncle, Rod Davis, was in the Air Force stationed at Biloxi, Miss. This is his recollection of events:

There was a Hurricane named Camille headed their way.

He was assigned to the Hurricane Hunters at Keesler AFB. Understanding Hurricane threats was their business. Well ahead of Camilles’ arrival they issued national and local warnings and as a result the govenors of Missisippi and Louisiana issued evacuation alerts and the National Guard was called up. At Keesler AFB they scrambled all of the local aircraft out of the area and then battenned down the hatches in preparation. Even after all of the preparations they still sustained major damage but no loss of life.

The locals were another matter. They completely downplayed the threats of Camille and instead planned Hurricane parties up and down the coast. The bars even created a new cocktail (The Hurricane – 90 proof) and issued souvenir Hurricane glasses to the revelers.

When Hurricane Camille made landfall on the Mississippi coast it was the 2nd of 3 CAT V hurricanes in the world during the 20th century but was the most powerful tropical Hurricane that had ever been recorded making landfall. Official winds reached in excess of 190 mph. It flattened everything in it’s path. Hundreds of people were killed and even in Alabama over 1,000 businesses were completely wiped off of the face of the earth. To say it was a trainwreck would be an understatement. After the worst passed the airbase organized local relief efforts so they got to see first-hand the devastating effects. Those fools partied in the face of of one of the worst Hurricanes in history.

In reference to Peak Oil today I see a much larger threat yet I also see the same complacency. The impact of Peak Oil will make even Hurricane Katrina look like a minor interruption in comparison. The problem with Peak Oil is it won’t happen in a matter of hours so you won’t see the storm clouds and high winds and there won’t be the calm after the storm. Instead it will happen over years…decades really but the effects will be lethal. Also there won’t be national resources or organizations like FEMA coming to the rescue. As national governments’ resources dry up so will they. For the most part people will be on their own.

When President Bush said that America is “addicted to oil” he didn’t get it quite right. What he should have said was “American is dangerously dependent on cheap oil”.

What to do? In my opinion personal education is the most critical thing to do right now. With a few exceptions I consider main stream media to be clueless. Television and radio pundits (the chattering classes) should be rounded up and charged with mal-practice. At the same time politicians pander to the lowest common-denominator: stupidity.

People need to drop any illusions that we can stop it or cure it or worse yet deny it out of existence. Like Cammille in 1969 it’s coming but there’s no stopping it. The best we can hope for is to mitigate the disaster through intelligent preparation.

If we are going to have any chance at all we will have to find the leadership in the shaving mirror, not the TV screen. In other words the answers will come from grass roots efforts and not from global centralized organizations.

Joe

It’s always there, but I think the time has come for decisions to be made and action to be taken, instead of just wishing it will all go away.

I’m talking about energy, I’m talking about what the hell America plans to do about it.

Consider this for a moment: when George Bush the Second (aka “Shrub”) took office, do you know how much a barrel of oil cost? In January, 2001, a barrel of West Texas Crude was $29.58. By the next year, yes after 9/11, it had dropped to $19.67. Which is about the price it was when Clinton the First took office.

It closed on Friday just shy of $120.

If we want to assume that the price will drop back to $25 a barrel? We’d be fucking nuts. No such thing will happen.

No, instead, demand worldwide will continue to increase, and this will pressure the price of oil. This is supply and demand. This is not Exxon making a profit, because Exxon – as big as they are – is just one company, and there are many, many others out there. Since oil is oil, we could buy it from Chevron instead. “Oh, but they’re in on it, too!” says the conspiracy. I don’t think so, Tim.

No, this is not a parlor trick on behalf of the oil industry. It is not because of 9/11. It is not because terrorists are keeping us from opening the vast Iraqi oil fields, nor is it because of a hurricane. This is simply demand – worldwide – outgrowing supply.

Consider this: the world’s population is expected to increase by another 50% by mid century. The number of cars and trucks on the road, driven (ha) by developing nations, will double in about thirty years. If there is enough demand already, today, to drive oil to over $100 a barrel for months, imagine when there are twice as many people in line at the gas station.

Turning corn into ethanol, to supplement our gasoline, has turned into a fiasco as half the world faces food shortages. Suspending state taxes on gasoline sales, which fund little things like the highways we like to drive, won’t help provide more oil to turn into precious gasoline, instead it will increase demand when there is already a lack of supply, while simultaneously forcing states to tax other things to keep the highways maintained (there won’t be enough money to build new ones, just try and keep the existing roads from falling apart).

So think about this, as you watch the pundits and stump speeches: who is going to help us navigate this mess?

You can make it zero percent, and Discover will still charge me 21% for the gas I bought on credit because I couldn’t wait until payday.

I’m thinking more of America is like me than CNN Money would want us to believe.

We’re still circling the drain, people, this isn’t over by a long shot.

Warning signs missed on economy

Only to people who WANTED to miss them (ahem; everyone in Washington DC).

I’ve been reading and repeating for years that the housing market was in a huge freakin’ bubble, and that once gasoline passed $2 a gallon it would start to drag on the rest of the economy. (Yes, $2.00; once we hit three or four dollars a gallon it just adds to the pain)

Grrrr.